UAE could see above-average rain from October as El Nino strengthens

Some long-range weather models are indicating above-average rainfall in the UAE between October and January, as the country enters its cooler and wetter season, according to a National Center of Meteorology (NCM) expert.

However, residents have been advised not to interpret the forecast as a warning of extreme storms or flooding directly caused by El Niño.

Rainfall Could Be Above Average

Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM, said some long-range models suggest that rainfall could be higher than average from October and November through January.

However, he stressed that the exact amount of rainfall cannot be predicted with certainty this far in advance.

“Some models indicate that rainfall will be higher than average in the coming months, from October and November until January,” Habib said, adding that nobody can determine the exact amount with certainty.

NCM Clarifies El Niño Impact

The clarification comes amid growing interest in this year’s El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño can influence weather patterns around the world, but its presence does not automatically mean that a particular country will experience extreme rainfall or storms.

In a clarification issued on September 11, the NCM described this year’s El Niño as “very strong” and said it can be considered an indicator of beneficial rainfall. However, the centre also noted that rainfall could occasionally become heavy if suitable atmospheric conditions develop over the UAE.

El Niño Does Not Directly Cause UAE Floods

For UAE residents, the distinction between a global climate pattern and local weather conditions is important.

Habib explained that El Niño does not directly affect the UAE in isolation. Instead, its influence can occur through broader changes in atmospheric circulation, with the resulting impact differing from one region to another.

“El Niño is not affecting the UAE directly. It's a climate phenomenon, which means the entire world will be affected — maybe East Asia, Europe, or America,” Habib said.

Local Weather Depends on Atmospheric Conditions

While El Niño can provide a broader climate signal, the actual weather experienced in the UAE depends on atmospheric conditions that develop over the region.

Therefore, the possibility of above-average rainfall in the coming months should not be interpreted as a definite prediction of severe storms or flooding.

NCM Counters Viral Weather Claims

The NCM has also sought to address viral social media posts warning residents about severe flooding or unusually heavy rainfall as a direct result of El Niño.

Historical weather records show that El Niño has occurred during some periods and been absent during others, Habib noted.

The latest clarification aims to distinguish long-range rainfall indications from specific forecasts of extreme weather, while reminding residents that the actual intensity and amount of rainfall will depend on developing weather conditions.